Economic Development Strategy & Action Plan 2024 - 2028

Ended on the 8 June 2024

02 The Local Economy

South Kesteven benefits from inherent economic strengths, whilst also facing some key constraints to growth.

Summary SWOT analysis

The analysis of recent economic trends within South Kesteven identifies a patchwork of varied economic characteristics and performance, with significant scope to boost the District's contribution to Lincolnshire's wider growth over the coming years.

The population is projected to reach 152,458 by 2036. This growth is driven by newcomers moving into the District from other parts of the country.

The value of South Kesteven's economy in 2021 was £2.835 billion, Gross Value Added (GVA), this is the highest in Lincolnshire. Despite this, in 2020, South Kesteven's productivity was £43,825.77 per job. This is £14,228 less output per role than the national figures.

South Kesteven's productivity was 22.9% lower than the UK average in 2020. All seven Lincolnshire authorities have below average productivity with South Kesteven ranking fifth.

There is a need to upskill the local resident base to more effectively capture high value growth opportunities and job growth in the future.

This Economic Development Strategy has been informed by a refreshed evidence base which establishes the economic baseline for South Kesteven in terms of current economic performance and recent trends.

Key findings from this are summarised in the 'South Kesteven District Council State of the District report 2023' (See Appendices).

Strengths

  • High living standards
  • Skills profile
  • Local economy
  • Resilient visitor economy
  • Connectivity

Weaknesses

  • Productivity
  • Digital infrastructure
  • Economic inactivity
  • Resident vs workplace earnings disparity

Opportunities

  • The green transition – economic opportunities
  • Business base
  • Regeneration opportunities
  • Pace of population growth

Threats

  • Challenging economic outlook
  • Economic underperformance and deepening inequality
  • National energy security and supply resilience
  • Outmigration of young people

The 2021 census estimated the population at the District to stand at 143,400. The life expectancy is 80.6 the highest in Lincolnshire. The District is ranked amongst the top 20% of districts in England for life satisfaction. There are 6265 businesses in the District, 43 per 1,000 residents. South Kesteven is ranked amongst the 40% least deprived districts in England. 12% of households experience fuel poverty. 12.3% of under 16 year olds experience relative child poverty. 13% of jobs are in knowledge intensive services. 81.8% of the 16-64 population possess at least NVQ4+ qualifications. Gross disposable household income per head is 21,467 pounds, the highest in Lincolnshire. Median annual gross earnings are 31,914 pounds. 13% of jobs are in knowledge intensive services. The District's total territorial CO2e emissions in 2020 were 948kt co2e. This equates to 6.6 tonnes per capita. The median house press is 9.78 times the median annual full-time salary. 69% of households own their own home.

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